The Same ≠ The Same

I'll start with a qualifier.  Greg Mattison and Brady Hoke (along with the defensive assistants) have done an amazing job with Michigan's defense.  That much is clear and obvious.  However, it's disingenuous to assert (as I've been hearing/seeing) that the defensive turnaround is solely a result of coaching and that all of the players are the same with only the results different.

From the 2010 Ohio game to the likely starting defense on Saturday, the Wolverines defense returns 5 starters.

By my count:

Starters in 2010 & 2011:
DE/DT Ryan Van Bergen (RS SR)
NT Mike Martin (SR)
MLB Kenny Demens (RS JR)
WDE Craig Roh (JR)
SS Jordan Kovacs (RS JR)

The Missing 6:
DE Greg Banks (graduated)
WLB Jonas Mouton (graduated and in NFL)
Spur Cam Gordon (hurt most of the year, now seeing special teams duty)
FS Ray Vinopal (transferred to Pitt)
CB James Rogers (graduated)
CB Courtney Avery (current nickel back)

The replacement 6:
DE/DT Will Heininger (RS SR, hurt most of last year, played some late in the year)
WLB Desmond Morgan (true freshman)
SLB Jake Ryan (RS FR, generated a ton of practice hype in 2010)
FS Troy Woolfolk (RS SR, injured all of 2010)
CB JT Floyd (RS JR, hurt towards the end of 2010)
CB Blake Countess (true freshman)

Firstly, the whole unit has been MUCH healthier than in 2010.  The most significant injury they've had on defense was Cam Gordon who missed most of the season and is now 3rd on the depth chart at SLB behind Jake Ryan and Brennan Beyer.

The only position where there has been a talent downgrade was at WLB where Michigan has had some trouble replacing the enigmatic Mouton.  First it was Brandon Herron with a little bit of Mike Jones sprinkled in.  Herron suffered an undisclosed injury and was supplanted by Desmond Morgan for Notre Dame.  He was awful and replaced by Brandin Hawthorne who made a couple of nice plays and parlayed that to a starting role that he eventually ceded to the resurgent Morgan.

Other than that, Michigan is either more experienced or simply better at every position.  I didn't even mention a healthy beast-mode Mike Martin vs. the gimpy-ankled-got-chop-blocked-by-Sparty 2010 version.

I've also been hearing people giving credit for his great recruits like Countess and Morgan.  Sorry, those guys committed to the previous staff so Brady/Mattison get credit for coaching them up but not reeling them in.

That is all.  Go Blue.  Beat Ohio.

P.S.  Read 3 & Out by John U. Bacon if you haven't already.

The Pictures

So, I realized I don't really have the energy to write a true Michigan football preview.  Plus, every time I thought about what I wanted to say I would end up digressing into a discussion of Hoke vs. RR, spread vs. Manball, the power play vs. basketball on grass, etc.

Instead, I'll make a quick observation or two and call it a season.

In case you were wondering about those pictures below.  The one on the left is the first play from the 2011 Spring Game.  The one on the right is from the 2010 opener vs. UConn.  In case you didn't notice Michigan's offensive formation is nearly identical in each.  Michigan's base package was a shotgun 3x1x1 last year and I expect it to be again this year at least when we're playing against quality opponents.

We can manball it up against Directional Michigan but if we're going to improve on 7 wins (and the talent is there for 8+) it's going to have to come on the strength (or at least the threat) of Denard's legs.

All in all, I expect the offense to be less warm and soapy while the defense will still be mediocre but make me feel less stabby.  The special teams will still be an adventure early, especially until either Gibbons or Wile take control of the kicking job (if either does) and while Hagerup is suspended.

Michigan won 7 games last year and returns nearly everyone.  If it wasn't for the coaching transition improvement would be nearly guaranteed.  Even so, 7 wins is probably the safe bet but not getting to 8 would be an unfortunate self-inflicted wound.

I'll take 8 and just hope the Denard Robinson ride is as fun as it has the potential to be.

Shifting Gears

I've been thinking about taking the next couple of posts to write a Michigan Football preview rather than making fun of Lynn et al.

The images above will be discussed so wet your whistle and stay tuned...

Changed The Site Name, Yo

My hand was forced.  

We've always loved when our buddy Lynn would write those question and answer columns where he writes the questions that nobody is asking and gives the answers that make no sense.

Along those lines we get the fun "Point-counterpoint: Breaking down the popular Tigers debates from August 10th.

* Point: The Tigers have the best starting pitching among all their Central Division rivals because of their depth and talent: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister and Brad Penny.

Best = depth and talent.  Hmm, OK.  Pointless yet redundant.

Counterpoint: Probably true, although the White Sox will argue.

Maybe someone should tell Lynn what a "counterpoint" is?  Typically it doesn't mean "agree" does it?

But you still need defense behind those guys and the Tigers aren't the best there.

But will the White Sox argue?  That's what I want to know.

* Point: The change in pitching coaches seems to have gone smoothly with Detroit's staff. But the hitting coach, Lloyd McClendon, remains. Don't people see what's happened with Curtis Granderson since he left Detroit?

Justin Verlander was great with the old pitching coach and remains great.  Brad Penny was a tomato can and remains a tomato can.  I guess the pitching coach transition has been pretty smooth.

* Counterpoint: You mean the Granderson who's batting .273 for the Yankees when he batted .302 and .280 during the first two years of McClendon's stint as Tigers hitting coach? You mean the Granderson who has 29 home runs at Yankee Stadium, where most of us thought he would hit 35 or 40, or more, each season? You mean the Granderson who hit .247 last season as the Yankees' omniscient hitting coaches got a hold of a guy whom McClendon had so hopelessly screwed up in Detroit?

I'm not going to get into a futile discussion about the uselessness of using only batting average to judge a hitter's performance let alone the performance of the hitting coach.  Not gonna do it.

What I can gather from Lynn's counterpoint is that he thinks Granderson was quite average for the Yankees last season and his huge 2011 is really no big deal and mainly a manifestation of his home ballpark.  After all, most of us* thought Granderson would hit 35-40 homers a year after being dealt to New York, right?

Clearly, Lynn must think the Yankees got fleeced dealing for that middling outfielder that swats 35-40 homers only because the cheating Yanks move in the right field fence by 150 feet every time Granderson bats, right?

Not right.

August 12th: Early returns favoring Yankees in megadeal

Take a peek at those statistics from Aug. 11, 2010. The Tigers were utter geniuses for trading Curtis Granderson to the Yankees.

OK, that's a year ago but the baseball season doesn't typically end on August 11th does it?  I just checked and it turns out that it doesn't.  And when the 2010 season ended Granderson finished with an OPS+ of 109.  In his last year with the Tigers, Granderson finished with an OPS+ of 102.  It would seem that his stats on August 11th, 2010 might not be all that important in the grand scheme of things.  But let's let Lynn continue with his thought experiment...

Meanwhile, in Detroit, a kid named Austin Jackson was flourishing in center. Max Scherzer and Phil Coke helped reconstruct manager Jim Leyland's pitching staff. And a young left-hander named Daniel Schlereth was getting some polish at Triple A Toledo in between stints that would leave him with a 2-0 record and 2.89 ERA in his first taste of life in Detroit.

Arizona might have liked its part of the bargain, but the Tigers looked like con artists.

The Tigers con-artisted their way to the golf course and the Yankees got fleeced into the playoffs.

It's a year later, and new numbers have arrived. Much like replays that can show different results from different angles, the picture has changed, at least temporarily.

Temporarily is probably the key word here as Lynn's mind floats like a plastic bag in the wind.

In fact, you can excuse the Yankees for not being terribly concerned what the Tigers or Diamondbacks do with their two-thirds of that parcel from December 2009.

The Yankees no longer mind being con-artisted?

Granderson is having one of those MVP-brand seasons the Tigers thought he would regularly amass after he had early monster years at Comerica Park.

He has 32 home runs and 93 RBIs for the Yankees. He is hitting .275, which isn't as important as how a player who once viewed left-handers as if they had skulls and crossbones on their uniforms is batting against those same lefties in 2011 — .273.

Whoa.  There's so much crazy here it's very hard to parse.  Hitting .275 overall isn't as important as hitting .273 in a minority of your at-bats huh?  In fact, what's more important is being able to hit .273 against pirates.  Gotcha.

The winner from all that finagling is, today — the Yankees.

Lynn goes on to ramble about who could win the finagling tomorrow.  But I want to know about yesterday man.

April 5th, 2010: A taste of Austin Jackson ... 

The throw he made in the seventh inning to nail Jason Kendall was one tool from Austin Jackson's workbench.

He's a very good baseball player. These were the skills we saw throughout spring camp.

The double he ripped down the left-field line in the Tigers' big sixth inning rally was another.

We'll see some struggles, no doubt. But the Tigers knew what they were doing when they brought on Jackson to replace Curtis Granderson.

Can't wait for the 2012 edition!

P.S. Lynn whips out a "splendid" in the article about the Yankees winning the deal when discussing Phil Coke.  He's seriously a Terminator Skynet sent back to never stop typing splendid.  There's no other explanation.

*most of us = not most of us

Argh

There's a segment of the Michigan football fanbase that liked Rich Rodriguez and thought he was submarined by elements within the program. Some think Lloyd Carr should have been more vocal in his support for Rodriguez and others think he was Captain Nemo of the proverbial submarine.

HOF '11 doesn't do himself any favors with this:

Lloyd Carr on ESPN 970: Michigan will compete in Big Ten with consistent defense, bigger players

He's right about the defense part. He MIGHT even be right about the needing bigger players part. Probably not, but it's possible. What's interesting is that I did some research (research=thinking) about the guys Michigan ran out there last year and how they came to be Wolverines in the first place.

While many argue about whether the Michigan offense was actually any good last year, there's no question that the defense was horrifically bad. SInce the team won 7 games, the offense must have done something right. Anyway, here were your 2010 opening day starters vs. UConn on D:

DE: Ryan Van Bergen (Carr)
NT: Mike Martin (Carr)
DE: Greg Banks (Carr)
WLB: Jonas Mouton (Carr)
MLB: Obi Ezeh (Carr)
SLB: Craig Roh (RR)
Spur: Carvin Johnson (RR)
CB: J.T. Floyd (Carr)
CB: James Rogers (Carr)
FS: Cam Gordon (RR)
SS: Jordan Kovacs (walk-on, RR)

7 of 11 of the too small, not consistent, guys were recruited by Lloyd Carr. Hmmm. As I said, Lloyd might be right but then again perhaps he should take some of the blame?

Michael Rosenberg Just Can't Quit Coach Rod

Hey, Rosenberg, you have succeeded in your quest. Rich Rod is gone. What are you going to do now? Disneyorld? No? Disney Land?? Negatory? Euro Disney??? Still no???????????

OK, I give up, what is it then Mikey?

You're going to continue trying to assassinate Coach Rod? Huh? Really? I guess so.

Why Rich Rodriguez failed at U-M

This is bound to be a fair read.

Six weeks ago, the two people who seemed most likely to coach Michigan in 2011 were Rich Rodriguez and Jim Harbaugh. It won't be either. So who is next?

Hmm, this seems more like a "who's next?" type of article rather than anything to do with Rodriguez, no?

Let's say this, up front: Michigan remains a premier job. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise. Don't let them say that if Rodriguez couldn't win in Ann Arbor and Harbaugh doesn't want to be there, Michigan has lost its luster.

Good to know. It's especially a plum job now that the they got rid of that asshole head coach who didn't not promote an atmosphere of compliance. Once the Free Press goes from 50% out of business to fully out of business it will be an even better job.

After firing Rodriguez, athletic director Dave Brandon evaded questions at Wednesday's news conference about whether he had talked with Harbaugh recently about taking the job. Brandon also said he thought Harbaugh would go to the NFL. Do the math: Brandon knows Harbaugh isn't coming to Michigan.

Simpletons. Do the math. Brandon says Harbaugh is going to the NFL. Michigan isn't the NFL. Therefore Harbaugh must not be coming to Michigan. MATH. I RULEZ THE MATH.

For a while, I had reason to believe U-M had a real shot at Harbaugh. And if Harbaugh, who turned 47 last month, wanted to be a college coach forever, I think he would have jumped at the Michigan job. But he knows if he goes to U-M now, it will take him at least two or three years to reach a level he has reached at Stanford -- and would delay any chance to go to the NFL. Scratch him off the list. It sounds like Brandon already has.

I have no idea what this means. I also don't think Michigan wants to have it's next coach last only 2-3 years whether that is because he sucks balls or wins too many mythical national titles.

I am amused by people who say Rodriguez "didn't forget to coach overnight." OK, fine. But why should his ability be defined only by his three excellent years at West Virginia and not the other seven years of his Division I career?

I am amused by people that care about Michael Rosenberg's opinion on anything other than the taste of Jim Harbaugh's dick. I'm also rarely amused. Do the math.

However, I am amused at trying to judge a man's career by removing his most successful work and then looking at the rest and saying, "meh."

But I can play this game. I think it's safe to say from his continued slobbering that Rosenberg LOVES him some Jimmy Harbaugh. Fine. I'm cool with that. But watch this:

Let's take Jim Harbaugh's best 3 seasons in Division I off his résumé and see what's left...

4 wins
8 losses
3-6 in the Pac 10

That's his whole career outside of his best 3 seasons outside of Division I. Jim Harbaugh has had 1 wonderful season, 2 decent ones, and one bad. Clearly, the man just can't coach.

I just took away Bill Belichick's best 3 seasons and it turns out he has never won a Super Bowl and lost to a clearly inferior opponent in his only Super Bowl appearance. That guy blows.

I'm not saying Rodriguez is as bad as his Michigan record -- he did have three wonderful years at West Virginia and three other decent ones. But he is responsible for his failure at Michigan. For all the complaining about the Les Miles crowd and Lloyd Carr's disgruntled players and the media and "the drama," Rodriguez failed at the most important tasks for a coach: hiring assistant coaches and recruiting.

I'll cede his point about hiring assistants. I'll assume "assistants" means "defensive coordinators" and there's little to argue other than saying since both Shafer and Robinson failed so miserably I think that the players MIGHT have had something to do with it.

With regards to recruiting, Rosenberg will be proven horribly wrong over the next three years if Michigan makes a good coaching hire and doesn't suffer massive attrition during this transition period.

See, Coach Rod was hired in December of '07 about 2 months before signing day. In that period of time, Rodriguez secured most of the current Carr recruits and brought in several of his own. He tried to get T. Pryor, for better or worse, and brought in several key offensive contributors out of his 8 commitments. This past season, 2 players that RR recruited completed their true junior years: Tay Odoms and Mike Shaw.

Roy Roundtree was the team's leading receiver the last two seasons after redshirting. Patrick Omameh is a future NFL draft pick playing at right guard. Terrence Robinson contributed in the slot. Ricky Barnum is poised to take over for Schilling at left guard next year. One of the other guys never made it to campus and Justin Feagin flamed out and is now a drug dealer or something. I think he might be enrolling at Michigan State.

The next year, RR had his first true recruiting class and it brought us Denard. Those guys just either completed their sophomore or redshirt freshmen seasons. There isn't a coach in the country that can win with second year players making up the bulk of the team. It's even tougher when you have to play more true freshmen than seniors.

Rich Rod is not without blame and the situation became so toxic that he had to go. But he can coach and he can recruit.

One last math problem:

If you took away all of Rosenberg's good articles and left only the bad ones, how many articles would you be left with?

The same amount you started with.

All Your CC Rabble Rabble Are Belong To Us

And we're back. Sort of.

This isn't about Lynn.

It's not my usual brand of "comedy."

Admittedly, there's nothing splendid about it.

However, with the Michigan coaching situation going kablooey today I wanted to weigh in and at least get something on the record regarding the "CC:"

When Rich Rodriguez was hired in December of 2007 he had a month or so to maintain the current recruiting class put together by Lloyd Carr and attempt to add players of his own.

In 2011, the players from that hybrid class (that did not redshirt) will be in their final year of eligibility.

As such, barring any medical redshirts, the following Rodriguez recruits will graduate next season:

Michael Shaw
Martavious “Tay” Odoms

That's it. Rodriguez will leave Michigan without having graduated a player and the next coach will graduate TWO of his recruits following his first season. The rest of the guys in the same boat such as Stonum and Koger were recruited by Lloyd.

While I have been a RR supporter, I do agree that the situation seems too toxic to continue with the status quo.

With that being said, the next coach of the Wolverines deserves better. He deserves more time barring unforeseen severe circumstances.

Unless, of course, it's Brady Hoke.